Fun winter predictions

Every year, weather experts and amateur snow fiends take their best shot at predicting snowfall. Here are a few highlights — some scientific, some not — from this year’s batch of ski predictions around the world:

• Absolute Alps.com predicted a good winter, writing: “… we’ve had a record number of spiders in the chalet this summer and as we all know this has got to be a good sign for the snowy winter to come.” Not sure if we recommend this approach.

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a more scientific outlook: The West “will probably experience warmer-than-normal temperatures, although the average winter temperatures could be anywhere from zero to three degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the previous three winters.”

• Farmer’s Almanac looks at averages: “Winter temperatures will be above normal, with the coldest periods in early to mid-December and early February. Precipitation will be above normal, with below-normal snowfall from Reno to Salt Lake City and above-normal snowfall in most other areas. The snowiest periods will occur in early and mid-November, mid- and late December, and mid- and late January.”

• Tony Crocker, bestsnow.net, says there is no clear picture for what El Niño does to the Sierras: “In the Sierra the picture is mixed. Everyone remembers the record Sierra snow during the record El Nino of 1982-83. But the 3rd and 4th strongest El Niños (1991-92 and 1986-87) were severe drought years at Tahoe, and 1986-87 was Mammoth’s second worst season ever at 42%. Nonetheless 4 of the top 8 El Niño years (1982-83, 1992-93, 1994-95 and 1997-98) were at least 145% at Mammoth (orange line) and those same years were at least 125% at Donner Summit (light blue line) and Lake Tahoe.”

• Nature Almanac has a looser approach: “Count the number of foggy mornings in August. This number will be the same as the number of snowfalls for the following winter, or if you’re not a morning person…”